It's always easy to make predictions with excellent explanations for why you're right, especially about the past. I correctly predicted first and last place, but I had considered theories under which any of the other 24 combinations of second through fifth could have played out.
The preliminary results of the April 21st School Board election, based on Tom Abbott's box score (which does not reflect absentee ballots and doesn't list the number of voters) shows some interesting results.
A Recap of the Box ScoreIncumbent Gervonn Rice won re-election with 1,941 votes. Newcomer Herbert Burack was in second with 1,894 and incumbent Dr. David Diuguid also won re-election with 1,837. Falling short were Howard Rose with 1,769, Patricia King-Butler with 1,167 and Dr. Porfirio Rodriguez with 747.
First through fourth places were separated by only 172 votes, just over 4% of the vote (assuming that budget yeas plus neas equals total votes). Patricia King-Butler was well behind in fifth, 670 votes out of the money, while Dr. Porfirio Rodriguez was almost 1,100 votes behind. Howard Rose (note of disclosure, a candidate whom I supported) was 68 votes behind Dr. David Diuguid in fourth place.
Incumbents have struggled in recent years, with Barbara Ostroth unseated by newcomer Sebastian Rodriguez in 2007. While both incumbents won re-election this year, the pattern by which the longest-serving incumbent gets fewer votes was repeated, with Dr. Diuguid receiving about 100 fewer votes than top-vote-getter Gervonn Rice. Diuguid came in third, behind newcomer Herbert Burack
The Budget FailsThe budget, which had passed by 94 votes last year, failed by a margin of nearly 700 votes this year, about 57%-43%. The budget "passed" (more yeas than neas) in 14 of Teaneck's 21 election districts:
This year, the budget failed narrowly in Districts 1 (voting at Firehouse #3, failing by 7 votes) and 21 (at TJ Middle School, 8 votes short) and failed by wide margins at Districts 9 by a 2-1 margin (at BF Middle School, failing by 111 votes), 10 by a 4-1 margin (at Whittier, failing by 248 votes), 11 by an almost 10-1 margin (also at Whittier, by 358 votes), 12 by a 4-1 margin (at Temple Emeth, by 157 votes) and in 18 by almost 2-1 (at Teaneck High School, failing by 88 votes).
Interestingly, the budget failed in 8 of 21 districts last year, with the results the same in all districts but at much narrower margins, with the changes of passing in District 9 by 2 votes, and failing in 14 (voting at Bryant School) and 16 (at Presbyterian Church); The biggest margin of rejection in 2008 was in District 11, where the budget failed by an almost 4-1 margin, but by only 57 votes.
Turnout! Turnout! Turnout!The biggest tale of the tape was the jump in turnout, from just under 9.8% last year to 15.8% this year. As in the old real estate adage, it was the location!, location!, location! of these votes that made the difference in both the Board of Ed and the budget vote.
While 14.3% of voters turned up in District 8 last year and 12.6% in District 3, only 6.9% of registered voters in District 11 bothered to vote last year, just percentage points ahead of the 6.8% in District 2, though oddball District 15 had minuscule turnout of 5.9%. The 399 voters who exercised their right to vote in the four West Englewood districts represented 8.2% of registered voters there. The Northeast's 469 voters in its four districts amounted to a turnout of 9.9%, just above the Township average.
The 2009 turnout increase saw almost 1,800 more people vote than the year before. While District 8 (last year's leader) saw turnout jump to 21.7% and district 3 increase to 15.3%, many districts saw little increase in voter turnout. District 1 had 8.7% last year, but only went up to 9.7% yesterday. Only 8.3% voted at District 2 this year, an increase of 26 voters from last year's near laggard value of 6.8%. The 101 people who turned out in District 11 last year at 6.9% of the eligible voters, soared to 446 voters at a 28.0% turnout. the 1,402 voters in West Englewood represented the addition of 1,000 voters and a turnout rate of 26.5%. triple the year before's percentage. The Northeast had 549 voters, an increase of 80 from 2008, and a turnout of 10.4%, half-a-point better than the 2008 level.
More than any other factor, it was turnout that told the story. If turnout rates were equal in all districts, Howard Rose is in, Herbert Burack is out and the budget passes.
Votes per VoterWhile we were all given three votes to select members of the Board of Education, the average voter chose 2.32 votes per voter, with signs of possible bullet voting. Most districts were near the average, several much higher (one perhaps shocklingly so, though there is a perfectly reasonable explanation) and a few much lower.
By my calculations, every voter in District 13 (at Bryant) voted for exactly three candidates and those in District 14 (also Bryant) cast a staggering 3.15 votes per voter (likely due to many budget non-votes), District 2's voters (Firehouse #3) cast 2.94 votes per voter, District 17 (Rodda) cast 2.87, District 7 (Lowell) cast a ratio of 2.86, while 2.80 votes were cast by District 6's voters (at Classic Residence).
By contrast, voters in District 11 (Whittier) voted an estimated 1.66 votes per voter, while the ratio was 1.74 in District 10 (also Whittier).
The Candidates (in order of finish)
Gervonn Rice (1,941 votes) won partially by winning the most districts of all six candidates, and by coming in the money (ranked first, second or third) in 15 of the 21 districts. She won 8 districts outright, took second in 2 and came in third in 5. She came in fourth, her worst showing, in Districts 9, 10, 11, 12, 18 and 20, which closely track the districts that rejected the budget. Rice edged fellow incumbent Dr. David Diuguid in only 10 of 21 districts, losing by moderate margins where she lost but winning by significant edges in Districts 13, 14, 16 and 17, the primary districts in the Northeast, where she received support from 77.2% of the voters. In the four West Englewood districts (9 through 12), Rice received 19.5% of the voters.
Herbert Burack (1,894 votes) was this year's hare, winning the same six districts in which Rice came in fourth, but falling out of the money in all of the 15 other districts, including fourth place in 3, fifth place in another 3 and last in 9 districts. The districts where Burack had the least success were the Northeast districts 13, 14, 16 and 17, where he eked out only 8.6% of the votes, getting only eight votes in District 13 and just breaking into double digits in the other 3. West Englewood's four districts gave him 1,206 votes, representing 86.0% of the voters there and 63.6% of the votes he received township-wide.
Dr. David Diuguid (1,837 votes) played the role of the tortoise, winning re-election with a slow and steady approach. He was in the money in all but one district, winning three, coming second in six and third in another 11. He was out of the money only in District 15, where he was a single vote behind Howard Rose. Diuguid came in third in three of the Northeast's main districts and second in the fourth, all of which were won by Rice. In West Englewood, Dr. Diuguid came in third in all four districts, behind Howard Rose, winning 24.5% of the voters there.
Howard Rose (1,769 votes) fell just short, 68 votes behind Dr. Diuguid. He won three districts, 5 (American Legion), 6 (Classic Residence) and 8 (Lowell), all located south of Route 4. He came in second in eight districts (including all four in West Englewood) and third in another three. He was out of the money in seven districts, coming in fourth in six districts (including three of four in the Northeast) and fifth in one (the other Northeast district). Where Rose won, he didn't win by big enough margins to edge into a seat.
Patricia King-Butler (1,167) came in a distant fifth. She did not win any districts, coming second in Districts 13, 14, 15 and 16 and third in District 17. King-Butler came in fourth in six districts, fifth in nine and last in one. The bulk of her support was in the Northeast, where she received 34.9% of her overall votes in the four main districts, receiving 85% of Rice's votes in Districts 13 and 14, about 75% in District 16 and 60% of Rice's votes in 17. King-Butler came in a distant fifth in the four West Englewood districts, receiving only 12.3% of the 1,402 votes cast there.
Dr. Porfirio Rodriguez (747) was not a factor township-wide, but showed signs of support in small pockets of the community. Dr. Rodriguez started off fast, if you looked at results in district order, winning District 1 with 46 votes and a margin of 3, but didn't finish in the top three in any other district. Dr. Rodriguez finished fourth in three districts, fifth in six and last in eleven districts.
The Neighborhood WatchFor the sake of convenience, I will divide Teaneck into three "neighborhoods", all of which have some strong (or not so strong) common characteristics. West Englewood includes the four districts 9 through 12, north of Route 4 and west of the CSX tracks. The Northeast includes districts 13, 14, 16 and 17, which are also north of Route 4, but east of the tracks. The newly-coined moniker SoRoFo includes the 12 districts
South of
Route
Four, and was conceived in a state of caffeine-fueled mania, after drinking about 290 of the 300 cups of iced coffee I bought at Dunkin' Donuts yesterday on the solemn occasion of Iced Coffee Day; The Espresso shots were probably a mistake and they were supposed to last at least a week or two. District 15, which covers the area around State Street oftened called "The Apartments" is an oddball district including a wide mix of more-transient residents who are far less likely than those of all other districts to be registered voters and (if registered) turn out to vote in numbers far smaller than other districts, leading to results that are rather muddled and tell little about trends. I will ignore the district in some calculations and lump it with the other four Northeast districts on other occasions.
To be continued (and edited) as time and data permit.... I will continue the recap today, adding absentee votes when they come in and getting the actual number of voters from the "tapes" at the Municipal Building. Let me know what your thoughts are so far and if there are any other stats we Wednesday Morning Quarterbacks may want to analyze.
Details on turnout (overall, by district and by "neighborhood") was added at 1:00 PM
Alan Sohn